Hapoel Rishon LeZion 0–2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

9/14/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 4Haberfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion27%

×Draw28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Rishon LeZionExpected goals in this matchIroni Kiryat Shmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.35

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

0.96

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.35

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 41% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 18 away

1.24

creates per match

1.50

1.21

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.24

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.21

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Rishon LeZion ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or draw

54%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

72%

Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

73%

Winning margin

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

9%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

62%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

25%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

7%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

74%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

39%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

37%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 131 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.24 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

27%

level

28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

46%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff