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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon — State Cup 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmonaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2/29/2024State CupState Cup · Round of 16Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona49%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.58
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.08

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
0.50

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.67
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2.50

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
74%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
75%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
51%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
25%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
79%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
21%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
29%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
65%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 0.67 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 0.50 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
49%
level
25%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
26%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2–1 Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2-1 in State Cup on February 29, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.