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Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
8/31/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 2Yankele Grundman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon28%
×Draw27%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.04
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.41

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.41
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or draw
55%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
73%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
72%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
10%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
65%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
9%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
76%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
38%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.41 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
28%
level
27%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
45%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Ramat HaSharon vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2-1 in Liga Leumit on August 31, 2023.

The match was played at Yankele Grundman Stadium in Ramat-ha’Sharon.