Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–2 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

4/2/2024

State Cup · Quarter-finalsNetanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona9%

×Draw21%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Nazareth Illit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

1.83

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

0.50

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.83

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 266% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

0.67

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

2.00

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.67

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–118%

0–216%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

30%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

79%

Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

91%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

2%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

39%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

9%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

1%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

84%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

54%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

12%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 0.67 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 2.00 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

9%

level

21%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

70%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff