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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Nazareth Illit — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
2/12/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 21Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona57%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.73
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
0.91

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 90% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.23

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.58
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.42

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
80%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
76%
Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit
43%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
32%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
82%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
52%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
25%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
60%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
23%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
74%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
57%
level
24%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
20%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Nazareth Illit drew 1-1 in Liga Leumit on February 12, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.