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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
9/21/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 5Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona62%
×Draw22%
Hapoel Afula16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.83
Hapoel Afula
0.80

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 129% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 129 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Hapoel Afula
1.02

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.58
Hapoel Afula
1.61

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
84%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Afula
78%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
38%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
36%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
84%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
54%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
28%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
55%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
19%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
79%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
62%
level
22%
Hapoel Afula scores more
16%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Afula

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Hapoel Afula 4-0 in Liga Leumit on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium in Kiryat-Shmona.