Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Afula vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2/6/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 20Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Afula25%
×Draw27%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Afula
0.94
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.39

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 48% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hapoel Afula
1.21
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Afula
1.27
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw
53%
Hapoel Afula or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
73%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
75%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
9%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
61%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
24%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
7%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
75%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
40%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
35%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more
25%
level
27%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
47%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Afula vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Hapoel Afula 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.