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Iranduba W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Iranduba W
Iranduba W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
7/14/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Arena da Amazônia (Manaus, Amazonas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Iranduba W56%
×Draw21%
Gremio Osasco Audax W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iranduba W
2.04
Gremio Osasco Audax W
1.21

Iranduba W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Iranduba W
1.41
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.82

allows per match

Iranduba W
1.59
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.68

finishing

Iranduba W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iranduba W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Iranduba W or draw
78%
Iranduba W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
79%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
44%

Winning margin

Iranduba W wins by 2+
34%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Iranduba W 1+ goals
87%
Iranduba W 2+ goals
60%
Iranduba W 3+ goals
33%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
70%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
34%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Iranduba W (draw refunded)
72%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iranduba W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iranduba W attack 1.41 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.04

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.82 + Iranduba W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Iranduba W scores more
56%
level
21%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
22%

Iranduba W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Iranduba W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iranduba W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W

Iranduba W and Gremio Osasco Audax W drew 2-2 in Brasileiro Women on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Arena da Amazônia (Manaus, Amazonas).