Gremio Osasco Audax W 1–2 Iranduba W

Gremio Osasco Audax W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Iranduba W

3/1/2020

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W31%

×Draw26%

Iranduba W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio Osasco Audax WExpected goals in this matchIranduba W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.41

Gremio Osasco Audax W

1.18

Iranduba W

1.41

Iranduba W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.00

creates per match

1.18

1.64

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W

1.00

Iranduba W

1.18

allows per match

Gremio Osasco Audax W

1.64

Iranduba W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Iranduba W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio Osasco Audax W ↓

Iranduba W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gremio Osasco Audax W or draw

58%

Gremio Osasco Audax W or Iranduba W

74%

Draw or Iranduba W

69%

Winning margin

Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+

13%

Iranduba W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals

69%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals

33%

Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals

12%

Iranduba W 1+ goals

76%

Iranduba W 2+ goals

41%

Iranduba W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)

43%

Iranduba W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio Osasco Audax W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Iranduba W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 1.00 + Iranduba W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Iranduba W attack 1.18 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more

31%

level

26%

Iranduba W scores more

42%

Iranduba W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Iranduba W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff