Iranduba W 0–2 Corinthians W: Result & Stats

Iranduba W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Corinthians W

9/23/2020

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Arena da Amazônia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Iranduba W20%

×Draw21%

Corinthians W58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iranduba WExpected goals in this matchCorinthians W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.02

Iranduba W

1.10

Corinthians W

2.02

Corinthians W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 80 away

1.41

creates per match

2.46

1.59

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Iranduba W

1.41

Corinthians W

2.46

allows per match

Iranduba W

1.59

Corinthians W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iranduba W+0.00on par

Corinthians W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iranduba W ↓

Corinthians W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Iranduba W or draw

42%

Iranduba W or Corinthians W

79%

Draw or Corinthians W

80%

Winning margin

Iranduba W wins by 2+

7%

Corinthians W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Iranduba W 1+ goals

67%

Iranduba W 2+ goals

30%

Iranduba W 3+ goals

10%

Corinthians W 1+ goals

87%

Corinthians W 2+ goals

60%

Corinthians W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Iranduba W (draw refunded)

26%

Corinthians W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iranduba W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Corinthians W away — creates 2.46, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iranduba W attack 1.41 + Corinthians W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Corinthians W attack 2.46 + Iranduba W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Iranduba W scores more

20%

level

21%

Corinthians W scores more

58%

Corinthians W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff