Corinthians W 3–1 Iranduba W: Result & Stats

Corinthians W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Iranduba W

5/9/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Paulo Machado de Carvalho (São Paulo, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Corinthians W66%

×Draw19%

Iranduba W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians WExpected goals in this matchIranduba W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.91

Corinthians W

2.19

Iranduba W

0.91

Corinthians W creates 141% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 22 away

3.01

creates per match

1.18

0.63

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Corinthians W

3.01

Iranduba W

1.18

allows per match

Corinthians W

0.63

Iranduba W

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians W+0.00on par

Iranduba W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians W ↓

Iranduba W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Corinthians W or draw

86%

Corinthians W or Iranduba W

81%

Draw or Iranduba W

34%

Winning margin

Corinthians W wins by 2+

43%

Iranduba W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Corinthians W 1+ goals

89%

Corinthians W 2+ goals

64%

Corinthians W 3+ goals

37%

Iranduba W 1+ goals

60%

Iranduba W 2+ goals

23%

Iranduba W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians W (draw refunded)

82%

Iranduba W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians W at home — creates 3.01, concedes 0.63 · 87 matches

Iranduba W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians W attack 3.01 + Iranduba W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.19

Iranduba W attack 1.18 + Corinthians W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Corinthians W scores more

66%

level

19%

Iranduba W scores more

14%

Corinthians W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff