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Djoliba vs Avenir de Tombouctou — Première Division 2019

Djoliba
Djoliba
FT
4 – 0
Avenir de Tombouctou
Avenir de Tombouctou
11/6/2019Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 5Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Djoliba72%
×Draw19%
Avenir de Tombouctou9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djoliba
2.01
Avenir de Tombouctou
0.53

Djoliba creates 279% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 11 away

creates per match

Djoliba
1.57
Avenir de Tombouctou
0.55

allows per match

Djoliba
0.51
Avenir de Tombouctou
2.45

finishing

Djoliba+0.00on par
Avenir de Tombouctou+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djoliba ↓

Avenir de Tombouctou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Djoliba or draw
91%
Djoliba or Avenir de Tombouctou
81%
Draw or Avenir de Tombouctou
28%

Winning margin

Djoliba wins by 2+
46%
Avenir de Tombouctou wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Djoliba 1+ goals
87%
Djoliba 2+ goals
59%
Djoliba 3+ goals
32%
Avenir de Tombouctou 1+ goals
41%
Avenir de Tombouctou 2+ goals
10%
Avenir de Tombouctou 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Djoliba (draw refunded)
89%
Avenir de Tombouctou (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djoliba at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.51 · 99 matches

Avenir de Tombouctou away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djoliba attack 1.57 + Avenir de Tombouctou defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.01

Avenir de Tombouctou attack 0.55 + Djoliba defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Djoliba scores more
72%
level
19%
Avenir de Tombouctou scores more
9%

Djoliba at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Première Division: Djoliba 4–0 Avenir de Tombouctou

Djoliba beat Avenir de Tombouctou 4-0 in Première Division on November 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.