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Avenir de Tombouctou vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Avenir de Tombouctou
Avenir de Tombouctou
FT
1 – 1
Djoliba
Djoliba
2/29/2020Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 16Stade Municipal de Tombouctou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Avenir de Tombouctou22%
×Draw33%
Djoliba45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avenir de Tombouctou
0.63
Djoliba
1.06

Djoliba creates 68% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 96 away

creates per match

Avenir de Tombouctou
0.73
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Avenir de Tombouctou
0.73
Djoliba
0.53

finishing

Avenir de Tombouctou+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avenir de Tombouctou ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–120%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Avenir de Tombouctou or draw
55%
Avenir de Tombouctou or Djoliba
67%
Draw or Djoliba
78%

Winning margin

Avenir de Tombouctou wins by 2+
6%
Djoliba wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Avenir de Tombouctou 1+ goals
47%
Avenir de Tombouctou 2+ goals
13%
Avenir de Tombouctou 3+ goals
3%
Djoliba 1+ goals
65%
Djoliba 2+ goals
29%
Djoliba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Avenir de Tombouctou (draw refunded)
32%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avenir de Tombouctou at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avenir de Tombouctou attack 0.73 + Djoliba defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Avenir de Tombouctou defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avenir de Tombouctou scores more
22%
level
33%
Djoliba scores more
45%

Djoliba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Avenir de Tombouctou vs Djoliba

Avenir de Tombouctou and Djoliba drew 1-1 in Première Division on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Tombouctou in Tombouctou.