Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western Pride vs Eastern Suburbs — Queensland NPL 2026

Western Pride
Western Pride
FT
3 – 2
Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
8/17/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 28Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride35%
×Draw20%
Eastern Suburbs45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Pride
1.96
Eastern Suburbs
2.24

Eastern Suburbs creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 82 away

creates per match

Western Pride
1.64
Eastern Suburbs
1.77

allows per match

Western Pride
2.71
Eastern Suburbs
2.29

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par
Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Eastern Suburbs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw
55%
Western Pride or Eastern Suburbs
80%
Draw or Eastern Suburbs
65%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+
18%
Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals
86%
Western Pride 2+ goals
58%
Western Pride 3+ goals
31%
Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
89%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
65%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)
44%
Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Eastern Suburbs away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.29 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.77 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western Pride scores more
35%
level
20%
Eastern Suburbs scores more
45%

Eastern Suburbs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Pride vs Eastern Suburbs

Western Pride beat Eastern Suburbs 3-2 in Queensland NPL on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Briggs Road Sporting Complex in City of Ipswich.