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Eastern Suburbs vs Western Pride — Queensland NPL 2026

Eastern Suburbs
Eastern Suburbs
FT
1 – 0
Western Pride
Western Pride
4/28/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 13Heath Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Eastern Suburbs50%
×Draw21%
Western Pride29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eastern Suburbs
2.08
Western Pride
1.56

Eastern Suburbs creates 33% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 14 away

creates per match

Eastern Suburbs
1.86
Western Pride
1.00

allows per match

Eastern Suburbs
2.12
Western Pride
2.29

finishing

Eastern Suburbs+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Suburbs ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eastern Suburbs or draw
71%
Eastern Suburbs or Western Pride
79%
Draw or Western Pride
50%

Winning margin

Eastern Suburbs wins by 2+
29%
Western Pride wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eastern Suburbs 1+ goals
87%
Eastern Suburbs 2+ goals
61%
Eastern Suburbs 3+ goals
34%
Western Pride 1+ goals
79%
Western Pride 2+ goals
46%
Western Pride 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eastern Suburbs (draw refunded)
63%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Suburbs at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.12 · 81 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Suburbs attack 1.86 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.08

Western Pride attack 1.00 + Eastern Suburbs defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eastern Suburbs scores more
50%
level
21%
Western Pride scores more
29%

Eastern Suburbs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eastern Suburbs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eastern Suburbs vs Western Pride

Eastern Suburbs beat Western Pride 1-0 in Queensland NPL on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Heath Park in Brisbane.