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İrəvan vs Difai Ağsu — Birinci Dasta 2019

İrəvan
İrəvan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
5/8/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 25ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

İrəvan39%
×Draw22%
Difai Ağsu39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İrəvan
1.83
Difai Ağsu
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

İrəvan
1.69
Difai Ağsu
1.15

allows per match

İrəvan
2.54
Difai Ağsu
1.98

finishing

İrəvan+0.00on par
Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İrəvan ↓

Difai Ağsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

İrəvan or draw
61%
İrəvan or Difai Ağsu
78%
Draw or Difai Ağsu
61%

Winning margin

İrəvan wins by 2+
20%
Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

İrəvan 1+ goals
84%
İrəvan 2+ goals
54%
İrəvan 3+ goals
28%
Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
84%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
55%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

İrəvan (draw refunded)
50%
Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İrəvan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İrəvan attack 1.69 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.83

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + İrəvan defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

İrəvan scores more
39%
level
22%
Difai Ağsu scores more
39%

İrəvan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "İrəvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İrəvan vs Difai Ağsu

İrəvan and Difai Ağsu drew 0-0 in Birinci Dasta on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at ASK Arena in Baku.