Difai Ağsu 5–0 İrəvan: Result & Stats

Difai Ağsu

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

İrəvan

3/7/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 17Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Difai Ağsu39%

×Draw25%

İrəvan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difai AğsuExpected goals in this matchİrəvan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.39

Difai Ağsu

1.44

İrəvan

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

1.24

creates per match

0.93

1.85

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Difai Ağsu

1.24

İrəvan

0.93

allows per match

Difai Ağsu

1.85

İrəvan

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

İrəvan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

İrəvan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw

64%

Difai Ağsu or İrəvan

75%

Draw or İrəvan

61%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+

18%

İrəvan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals

76%

Difai Ağsu 2+ goals

42%

Difai Ağsu 3+ goals

18%

İrəvan 1+ goals

75%

İrəvan 2+ goals

40%

İrəvan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)

52%

İrəvan (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

İrəvan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + İrəvan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

İrəvan attack 0.93 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more

39%

level

25%

İrəvan scores more

36%

Difai Ağsu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Difai Ağsu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff