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İrəvan vs Araz Saatlı — Birinci Dasta 2019

İrəvan
İrəvan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
4/4/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 20ASK Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

İrəvan57%
×Draw18%
Araz Saatlı25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

İrəvan
2.66
Araz Saatlı
1.73

İrəvan creates 54% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

İrəvan
1.69
Araz Saatlı
0.92

allows per match

İrəvan
2.54
Araz Saatlı
3.62

finishing

İrəvan+0.00on par
Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İrəvan ↓

Araz Saatlı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

İrəvan or draw
75%
İrəvan or Araz Saatlı
82%
Draw or Araz Saatlı
43%

Winning margin

İrəvan wins by 2+
37%
Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

İrəvan 1+ goals
93%
İrəvan 2+ goals
74%
İrəvan 3+ goals
49%
Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
82%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
52%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

İrəvan (draw refunded)
70%
Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İrəvan at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Araz Saatlı away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İrəvan attack 1.69 + Araz Saatlı defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.66

Araz Saatlı attack 0.92 + İrəvan defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

İrəvan scores more
57%
level
18%
Araz Saatlı scores more
25%

İrəvan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "İrəvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: İrəvan vs Araz Saatlı

Araz Saatlı beat İrəvan 4-1 in Birinci Dasta on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at ASK Arena in Baku.