Araz Saatlı 1–2 İrəvan: Result & Stats

Araz Saatlı

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

İrəvan

12/25/2023

Birinci Dasta · Round 12Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Araz Saatlı32%

×Draw24%

İrəvan44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Araz SaatlıExpected goals in this matchİrəvan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.65

Araz Saatlı

1.39

İrəvan

1.65

İrəvan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.14

creates per match

0.93

2.36

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Araz Saatlı

1.14

İrəvan

0.93

allows per match

Araz Saatlı

2.36

İrəvan

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

İrəvan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz Saatlı ↓

İrəvan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Araz Saatlı or draw

56%

Araz Saatlı or İrəvan

76%

Draw or İrəvan

68%

Winning margin

Araz Saatlı wins by 2+

15%

İrəvan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Araz Saatlı 1+ goals

75%

Araz Saatlı 2+ goals

40%

Araz Saatlı 3+ goals

16%

İrəvan 1+ goals

81%

İrəvan 2+ goals

49%

İrəvan 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)

43%

İrəvan (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz Saatlı at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

İrəvan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz Saatlı attack 1.14 + İrəvan defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.39

İrəvan attack 0.93 + Araz Saatlı defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Araz Saatlı scores more

32%

level

24%

İrəvan scores more

44%

İrəvan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "İrəvan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff