Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

IR Reykjavik vs Fjolnir — League #814 2026

IR Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
Unknown 69', 57', 45', 43'
Unknown 82', 77'
1/8/2026League #814League #814 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

IR Reykjavik49%
×Draw19%
Fjolnir32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IR Reykjavik
2.67
Fjolnir
2.17

IR Reykjavik creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

IR Reykjavik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.67

allows per match

IR Reykjavik
1.67
Fjolnir
3.00

finishing

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Reykjavik ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

IR Reykjavik or draw
68%
IR Reykjavik or Fjolnir
81%
Draw or Fjolnir
51%

Winning margin

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+
31%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals
93%
IR Reykjavik 2+ goals
74%
IR Reykjavik 3+ goals
49%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
89%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
64%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)
60%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Reykjavik at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Reykjavik attack 2.33 + Fjolnir defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IR Reykjavik scores more
49%
level
19%
Fjolnir scores more
32%

IR Reykjavik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
45'
57'
69'
77'
82'
IR
Fjolnir
J. Gudmundsson
Manager: J. Gudmundsson
Ú. Jökulsson
Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

Match Recap: IR Reykjavik vs Fjolnir

IR Reykjavik beat Fjolnir 4-2 in League #814 on January 8, 2026.

Goals: ? (43', 45', 57', 69', 77', 82').