IR Reykjavik 3–3 Fjolnir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

IR Reykjavik

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Fjolnir

O. Hlynsson 88' (pen)

R. Punyed 56'

G. M. Magnusson 7'

K. Arnarsson 78', 14'

E. O. Hardarson 58'

8/8/2025

1. Deild · Round 16Hertz völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

IR Reykjavik44%

×Draw23%

Fjolnir33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IR ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.52

IR Reykjavik

1.80

Fjolnir

1.52

IR Reykjavik creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.96

creates per match

1.82

1.22

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

IR Reykjavik

1.96

Fjolnir

1.82

allows per match

IR Reykjavik

1.22

Fjolnir

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IR Reykjavik ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

IR Reykjavik or draw

67%

IR Reykjavik or Fjolnir

77%

Draw or Fjolnir

56%

Winning margin

IR Reykjavik wins by 2+

24%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IR Reykjavik 1+ goals

83%

IR Reykjavik 2+ goals

54%

IR Reykjavik 3+ goals

27%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

78%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

45%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

IR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

58%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IR Reykjavik at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IR Reykjavik attack 1.96 + Fjolnir defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.80

Fjolnir attack 1.82 + IR Reykjavik defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IR Reykjavik scores more

44%

level

23%

Fjolnir scores more

33%

IR Reykjavik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IR Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

G. M. Magnusson

14'

K. Arnarsson

24'

A. Kristinsson

29'

B. HelgasonMissed penalty

33'

S. Sigmarsson

34'

K. Arnarsson

46'

R. Punyed← E. Sigurhjartarson

46'

A. Kostic← K. Marteinsson

56'

R. Punyed

58'

E. O. Hardarson

60'

G. M. Magnusson← G. M. Magnusson

64'

E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson

68'

O. Einarsson← O. Einarsson

69'

B. Helgason

78'

K. Arnarsson

79'

D. Ingvarsson

80'

A. Sigursteinsson← A. Sigursteinsson

87'

S. Sigmarsson← S. Sigmarsson

88'

O. HlynssonPenalty

90+2'

G. Gislason← G. Gislason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff