Ipswich 2–0 Southside Eagles: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Southside Eagles

4/23/2024

Queensland Premier League · Round 6Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ipswich46%

×Draw23%

Southside Eagles31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchSouthside Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.42

Ipswich

1.80

Southside Eagles

1.42

Ipswich creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 53 away

1.39

creates per match

1.26

1.58

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Ipswich

1.39

Southside Eagles

1.26

allows per match

Ipswich

1.58

Southside Eagles

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Southside Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

69%

Ipswich or Southside Eagles

77%

Draw or Southside Eagles

54%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

25%

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

83%

Ipswich 2+ goals

54%

Ipswich 3+ goals

27%

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

76%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

41%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

60%

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.39 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.80

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Ipswich defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ipswich scores more

46%

level

23%

Southside Eagles scores more

31%

Ipswich at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff