Ipswich 2–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Portsmouth

G. Hirst 41'

J. Philogene 9'

M. Pack 90'

9/27/2025

Championship · Round 7Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Ipswich55%

×Draw25%

Portsmouth20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.85

Ipswich

1.58

Portsmouth

0.85

Ipswich creates 86% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.90

creates per match

0.94

0.76

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Ipswich

1.90

Portsmouth

0.94

allows per match

Ipswich

0.76

Portsmouth

1.26

+0.06on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Ipswich+0.06on par

Portsmouth+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Portsmouth

75%

Draw or Portsmouth

45%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

29%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

79%

Ipswich 2+ goals

47%

Ipswich 3+ goals

21%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

57%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

21%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

73%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.76 · 27 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.90 + Portsmouth defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.58

Portsmouth attack 0.94 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ipswich scores more

55%

level

25%

Portsmouth scores more

20%

Ipswich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Pack

Portsmouth · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

Andre Dozzell

9'

J. Philogene↳ J. Cajuste

33'

41'

62'

62'

65'

73'

I. Azon← G. Hirst

74'

K. McAteer← S. W. Egeli

74'

M. Nunez← J. Cajuste

74'

J. Clarke← J. Philogene

74'

F. Bianchini← M. Kosznovszky

74'

M. Kirk← Yang Min-Hyuk

81'

A. Young← L. Davis

90'

H. Matthews← J. Knight

90'

M. Pack↳ J. Swift

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichPortsmouth

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots7

1.53Expected Goals (xG)0.89

5Corners4

15Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target3

8Off Target1

1Blocked3

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

375Total Passes387

302Accurate Passes286

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.49Goals Prevented-0.49

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Championship: Ipswich 2–1 Portsmouth

Ipswich beat Portsmouth 2-1 in Championship on September 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Philogene (9'), G. Hirst (41'), M. Pack (90').

Ipswich controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich.

Ipswich vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Ipswich 2–1 Portsmouth