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Ipswich vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
3/12/2022League OneLeague One · Round 38Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich44%
×Draw27%
Portsmouth29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.40
Portsmouth
1.08

Ipswich creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 134 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
71%
Ipswich or Portsmouth
73%
Draw or Portsmouth
56%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
21%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
75%
Ipswich 2+ goals
41%
Ipswich 3+ goals
17%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
66%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
29%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
60%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ipswich scores more
44%
level
27%
Portsmouth scores more
29%

Ipswich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Ipswich 0–0 Portsmouth

Ipswich and Portsmouth drew 0-0 in League One on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.