Ipswich 2–0 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Huddersfield

O. Hutchinson 48'

W. Burns 27'

5/4/2024

Championship · Round 46Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ipswich57%

×Draw24%

Huddersfield19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.88

Ipswich

1.70

Huddersfield

0.88

Ipswich creates 93% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 11 away

1.89

creates per match

0.99

0.77

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Ipswich

1.89

Huddersfield

0.99

allows per match

Ipswich

0.77

Huddersfield

1.51

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Ipswich+0.13scores more

Huddersfield+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

81%

Ipswich or Huddersfield

76%

Draw or Huddersfield

43%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

31%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

82%

Ipswich 2+ goals

51%

Ipswich 3+ goals

24%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

59%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

22%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

75%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.77 · 40 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.51 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.89 + Huddersfield defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.70

Huddersfield attack 0.99 + Ipswich defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ipswich scores more

57%

level

24%

Huddersfield scores more

19%

Ipswich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Chaplin

Ipswich · M

8.3

Match Events

27'

W. Burns↳ C. Chaplin

30'

A. Matos← J. Rudoni

48'

O. Hutchinson↳ Sam Morsy

62'

J. Koroma← D. Ward

62'

T. Iorpenda← D. Kasumu

62'

B. Radulović← R. Healey

74'

J. Sarmiento← C. Chaplin

74'

K. Moore← G. Hirst

74'

K. Jackson← W. Burns

75'

B. Spencer← T. Edwards

77'

84'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichHuddersfield

Overview

63%Possession37%

24Total Shots5

1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.09

8Corners0

9Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots5

5On Target2

12Off Target2

7Blocked1

14Inside Box1

10Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

599Total Passes345

522Accurate Passes260

87%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3