Huddersfield 1–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

D. Burgzorg 61'

B. Williams 87'

9/30/2023

Championship · Round 9John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield30%

×Draw26%

Ipswich44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.44

Huddersfield

1.14

Ipswich

1.44

Ipswich creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 35 away

1.10

creates per match

1.43

1.45

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Ipswich

1.43

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Ipswich

1.18

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Ipswich+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

56%

Huddersfield or Ipswich

74%

Draw or Ipswich

70%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Ipswich wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

68%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Ipswich 1+ goals

76%

Ipswich 2+ goals

42%

Ipswich 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

41%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.18 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ipswich attack 1.43 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huddersfield scores more

30%

level

26%

Ipswich scores more

44%

Ipswich at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Pearson

Huddersfield · D

7.6

Match Events

5'

20'

35'

35'

46'

B. Williams← H. Clarke

52'

Leif Davis

61'

Delano Burgzorg

61'

D. Burgzorg↳ Y. Nakayama

65'

J. Taylor← L. Evans

72'

K. Hudlin← J. Koroma

72'

B. Jackson← Y. Nakayama

72'

R. Edmonds-Green← J. Hogg

75'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

75'

F. Ladapo← G. Hirst

75'

D. Scarlett← W. Burns

87'

B. Williams

90+2'

T. Lees← S. Thomas

90+2'

K. Harratt← D. Burgzorg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldIpswich

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots20

1.32Expected Goals (xG)1.36

5Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots20

6On Target6

4Off Target6

2Blocked8

6Inside Box15

6Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

307Total Passes497

195Accurate Passes369

64%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Championship: Huddersfield 1–1 Ipswich

Huddersfield and Ipswich drew 1-1 in Championship on September 30, 2023.

Goals: D. Burgzorg (61'), B. Williams (87').

Ipswich controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs Ipswich — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Huddersfield 1–1 Ipswich