Ipswich 1–0 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gillingham

C. Chaplin 74'

2/5/2022

League One · Round 31Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich50%

×Draw26%

Gillingham25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

Ipswich

1.54

Gillingham

1.00

Ipswich creates 54% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

1.70

creates per match

1.17

0.83

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

75%

Ipswich or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

50%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

26%

Gillingham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

79%

Ipswich 2+ goals

45%

Ipswich 3+ goals

20%

Gillingham 1+ goals

63%

Gillingham 2+ goals

26%

Gillingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

67%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ipswich scores more

50%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

25%

Ipswich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

G. Edmundson

Ipswich · D

8.2

Match Events

11'

David Tutonda

53'

K. Edwards← W. Burns

68'

C. Kelman← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

74'

C. Chaplin↳ G. Edmundson

79'

M. Bonne← J. Pigott

79'

T. Dickson-Peters← B. Thompson

85'

T. Bakinson← C. Chaplin

90+1'

D. Phillips← M. Ehmer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichGillingham

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots13

4Corners4

13Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots13

2On Target1

6Off Target5

3Blocked7

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

521Total Passes298

405Accurate Passes181

78%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2