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Ipswich vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gillingham
Gillingham
T. Bishop 86'
10/27/2020League OneLeague One · Round 9Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich50%
×Draw26%
Gillingham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.54
Gillingham
1.00

Ipswich creates 54% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

creates per match

Ipswich
1.70
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Ipswich
0.83
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
75%
Ipswich or Gillingham
74%
Draw or Gillingham
50%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
26%
Gillingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
79%
Ipswich 2+ goals
45%
Ipswich 3+ goals
20%
Gillingham 1+ goals
63%
Gillingham 2+ goals
26%
Gillingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
67%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ipswich scores more
50%
level
26%
Gillingham scores more
25%

Ipswich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
T. HolýIpswichIpswich · G
8.0

Match Events

27'
Alex MacDonald
33'
J. Walsh← J. Bonham
57'
Andre Dozzell
68'
A. Dobra← F. Sears
76'
E. Huws← J. Lankester
77'
S. Robertson← R. Jackson
86'
T. Bishop↳ S. Ward
88'
Teddy Bishop
89'
K. Bennetts← T. Bishop
90'
V. Oliver← K. Dempsey

Possession

70%Ipswich

Shots

18Ipswich

Pass accuracy

59%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichGillingham
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots10
11Corners3
14Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots10
5On Target5
7Off Target3
6Blocked2
8Inside Box8
10Outside Box2
Passing
70%Possession30%
493Total Passes201
407Accurate Passes116
83%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Gillingham

Ipswich beat Gillingham 1-0 in League One on October 27, 2020.

Goals: T. Bishop (86').

Ipswich controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.