Ipswich 0–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

2/22/2022

League One · Round 35Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ipswich55%

×Draw24%

Cheltenham20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.92

Ipswich

1.69

Cheltenham

0.92

Ipswich creates 84% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 69 away

1.70

creates per match

1.01

0.83

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Cheltenham

76%

Draw or Cheltenham

45%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

30%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

82%

Ipswich 2+ goals

50%

Ipswich 3+ goals

24%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

60%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

23%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

73%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ipswich scores more

55%

level

24%

Cheltenham scores more

20%

Ipswich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

B. Celina

Ipswich · F

7.9

Match Events

64'

Charlie Colkett

65'

K. Vincent-Young← D. Thompson

66'

M. Bonne← K. Jackson

71'

B. Williams← R. Hutchinson

73'

Lewis Freestone

74'

C. Wright← A. Ramsey

79'

J. Pigott← T. Carroll

84'

88'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichCheltenham

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots6

8Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots6

4On Target1

11Off Target3

2Blocked2

11Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

597Total Passes323

480Accurate Passes196

80%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1