Cheltenham 2–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

W. Boyle 81'

C. Wright 62'

M. Penney 9'

8/17/2021

League One · Round 3Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham32%

×Draw28%

Ipswich41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.29

Cheltenham

1.10

Ipswich

1.29

Ipswich creates 17% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 84 away

1.19

creates per match

1.27

1.32

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.19

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.32

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

59%

Cheltenham or Ipswich

72%

Draw or Ipswich

68%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

12%

Ipswich wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

67%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

30%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

10%

Ipswich 1+ goals

72%

Ipswich 2+ goals

37%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

44%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more

32%

level

28%

Ipswich scores more

41%

Ipswich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

W. Boyle

Cheltenham · D

8.7

Match Events

9'

15'

27'

29'

62'

64'

66'

G. Lloyd← A. Williams

66'

A. May← K. Vassell

77'

K. Jackson← J. Pigott

81'

W. Boyle

85'

E. Chapman← C. Wright

88'

L. Barry← M. Bonne

89'

T. Carroll← R. Harper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamIpswich

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots11

2Corners5

9Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked4

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

263Total Passes503

171Accurate Passes398

65%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2