Ipswich 0–3 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Ipswich

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

M. Leaburn 64'

M. Gillesphey 55'

S. Carey 52'

10/21/2025

Championship · Round 11Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Ipswich61%

×Draw22%

Charlton17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.88

Ipswich

1.88

Charlton

0.88

Ipswich creates 114% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

2.02

creates per match

0.97

0.78

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Ipswich

2.02

Charlton

0.97

allows per match

Ipswich

0.78

Charlton

1.74

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Ipswich-0.02on par

Charlton-0.08on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

83%

Ipswich or Charlton

78%

Draw or Charlton

39%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

36%

Charlton wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

85%

Ipswich 2+ goals

56%

Ipswich 3+ goals

29%

Charlton 1+ goals

59%

Charlton 2+ goals

22%

Charlton 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

78%

Charlton (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.78 · 22 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.74 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 2.02 + Charlton defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.88

Charlton attack 0.97 + Ipswich defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ipswich scores more

61%

level

22%

Charlton scores more

17%

Ipswich at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Kaminski

Charlton · G

8.7

Match Events

24'

45+3'

52'

55'

62'

G. Hirst← I. Azon

62'

J. Philogene← K. McAteer

62'

T. Campbell← T. Olaofe

62'

M. Leaburn← C. Kelman

64'

M. Leaburn

75'

J. Taylor← J. Cajuste

75'

78'

86'

88'

90+2'

J. Rankin-Costello← G. Docherty

90+2'

R. Burke← C. Coventry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichCharlton

Overview

67%Possession33%

30Total Shots15

2.19Expected Goals (xG)1.43

16Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

30Total Shots15

5On Target8

14Off Target7

11Blocked0

17Inside Box8

13Outside Box7

Passing

67%Possession33%

448Total Passes226

376Accurate Passes150

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

1.58Goals Prevented1.58

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2