Charlton 4–4 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.80

Charlton

1.70

Ipswich

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Charlton

2.00

Ipswich

1.60

allows per match

Charlton

2.00

Ipswich

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

59%

Charlton or Ipswich

78%

Draw or Ipswich

63%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

19%

Ipswich wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

82%

Charlton 2+ goals

51%

Charlton 3+ goals

24%

Ipswich 1+ goals

83%

Ipswich 2+ goals

54%

Ipswich 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

47%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 2.00 + Ipswich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ipswich attack 1.60 + Charlton defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Charlton scores more

37%

level

22%

Ipswich scores more

41%

Ipswich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Morgan

Charlton · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

Dominic Ball

14'

A. Morgan← M. Egbo

17'

Sean Clare

43'

S. Lavelle← E. OConnell

45+3'

Tyreece John-Jules

45+3'

G. Edmundson↳ L. Davis

50'

George Dobson

52'

T. John-Jules↳ W. Burns

58'

Sam Morsy

62'

C. Blackett-Taylor← C. Kirk

62'

C. Aneke← J. Stockley

63'

Christian Walton

63'

J. Rak-Sakyi

71'

F. Ladapo← T. John-Jules

71'

K. Edwards← K. Jackson

71'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

76'

83'

90+3'

90+1'

90+4'

90+6'

T. Thomas↳ C. Blackett-Taylor

90+9'

G. Dobson↳ A. Morgan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonIpswich

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots18

1Corners5

14Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots18

7On Target5

0Off Target5

2Blocked8

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

401Total Passes411

314Accurate Passes330

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides3