Ipswich 2–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Blackburn

A. Edun 90+1'

G. Edwards 5'

B. Dack 29'

D. Graham 20'

8/4/2018

Championship · Round 1Portman Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Ipswich55%

×Draw25%

Blackburn21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.89

Ipswich

1.63

Blackburn

0.89

Ipswich creates 83% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 59 away

1.89

creates per match

1.01

0.77

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Ipswich

1.89

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Ipswich

0.77

Blackburn

1.38

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.13scores more

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

79%

Ipswich or Blackburn

75%

Draw or Blackburn

45%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

29%

Blackburn wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

80%

Ipswich 2+ goals

48%

Ipswich 3+ goals

22%

Blackburn 1+ goals

59%

Blackburn 2+ goals

22%

Blackburn 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

73%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.77 · 40 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.89 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Ipswich defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ipswich scores more

55%

level

25%

Blackburn scores more

21%

Ipswich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

G. Edwards

Ipswich · M

8.1

Match Events

5'

20'

29'

35'

37'

L. Woolfenden← J. Spence

53'

Elliott Bennett

60'

A. Edun← F. Downes

62'

K. Palmer← D. Samuel

68'

J. Nuttall← D. Graham

72'

79'

83'

88'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBlackburn

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots6

3Corners0

11Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots6

3On Target2

4Off Target2

2Blocked2

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

408Total Passes325

272Accurate Passes201

67%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls21

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Championship: Ipswich 2–2 Blackburn

Ipswich and Blackburn drew 2-2 in Championship on August 4, 2018.

Goals: G. Edwards (5'), D. Graham (20'), B. Dack (29'), A. Edun (90+1').

Ipswich controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Portman Road Stadium in Ipswich.

Ipswich vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Ipswich 2–2 Blackburn