Blackburn 0–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

C. Chaplin 9'

3/29/2024

Championship · Round 39Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Blackburn36%

×Draw27%

Ipswich37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.24

Blackburn

1.21

Ipswich

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

1.24

creates per match

1.50

0.98

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Blackburn

1.24

Ipswich

1.50

allows per match

Blackburn

0.98

Ipswich

1.18

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.24scores less

Ipswich+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

63%

Blackburn or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

64%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

15%

Ipswich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

34%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Ipswich 1+ goals

71%

Ipswich 2+ goals

35%

Ipswich 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

49%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 17 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.18 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.24 + Ipswich defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ipswich attack 1.50 + Blackburn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more

36%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

37%

Ipswich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Chaplin

Ipswich · M

8.0

Match Events

3'

6'

9'

45'

62'

A. Moran← B. Chrisene

62'

Y. Ayari← J. Rankin-Costello

64'

Ali Al Hamadi← K. Moore

64'

J. Sarmiento← N. Broadhead

65'

K. Jackson← C. Chaplin

70'

H. Clarke← L. Davis

81'

Massimo Luongo

82'

S. Telalović← R. Hedges

84'

Kayden Jackson

90+5'

H. Carter← H. Pickering

90+5'

C. Burgess← O. Hutchinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnIpswich

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots11

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.75

9Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

483Total Passes453

395Accurate Passes375

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1