Blackburn 1–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

A. Gudjohnsen 76'

S. W. Egeli 90'

12/2/2025

Championship · Round 6Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Blackburn34%

×Draw28%

Ipswich38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Blackburn

1.15

Ipswich

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.19

creates per match

1.50

0.96

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Blackburn

1.19

Ipswich

1.50

allows per match

Blackburn

0.96

Ipswich

1.10

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.34scores less

Ipswich-0.07on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

62%

Blackburn or Ipswich

72%

Draw or Ipswich

66%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

14%

Ipswich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

68%

Blackburn 2+ goals

32%

Blackburn 3+ goals

11%

Ipswich 1+ goals

71%

Ipswich 2+ goals

35%

Ipswich 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

47%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 13 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.19 + Ipswich defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ipswich attack 1.50 + Blackburn defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more

34%

level

28%

Ipswich scores more

38%

Ipswich at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

R. Hedges

Blackburn · M

7.3

Match Events

26'

45'

46'

46'

49'

50'

Taylor Gardner-Hickman

57'

S. Tavares← A. Forshaw

68'

J. Philogene← K. McAteer

68'

G. Hirst← C. Akpom

71'

M. Baradji← R. Morishita

71'

T. Cantwell← T. Gardner-Hickman

76'

A. Gudjohnsen↳ G. Pratt

78'

D. De Neve← R. Hedges

78'

M. Gueye← A. Gudjohnsen

80'

S. W. Egeli← A. Matusiwa

90'

S. W. Egeli↳ J. Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnIpswich

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots11

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.51

9Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target2

6Off Target4

5Blocked5

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

314Total Passes387

234Accurate Passes306

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Championship: Blackburn 1–1 Ipswich

Blackburn and Ipswich drew 1-1 in Championship on December 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Gudjohnsen (76'), S. W. Egeli (90').

Ipswich controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.

Blackburn vs Ipswich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackburn 1–1 Ipswich