Ipswich 2–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Birmingham

K. McAteer 45'

B. Johnson 41'

C. Vicente 32'

4/6/2026

Championship · Round 41Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Ipswich54%

×Draw26%

Birmingham20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.79

Ipswich

1.51

Birmingham

0.79

Ipswich creates 91% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.94

creates per match

0.78

0.79

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Ipswich

1.94

Birmingham

0.78

allows per match

Ipswich

0.79

Birmingham

1.08

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Ipswich+0.06on par

Birmingham-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Birmingham

74%

Draw or Birmingham

46%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

28%

Birmingham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

78%

Ipswich 2+ goals

44%

Ipswich 3+ goals

19%

Birmingham 1+ goals

55%

Birmingham 2+ goals

19%

Birmingham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

73%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.79 · 17 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.94 + Birmingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.51

Birmingham attack 0.78 + Ipswich defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

54%

level

26%

Birmingham scores more

20%

Ipswich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Greaves

Ipswich · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

C. Vicente

38'

Demarai Gray

39'

A. Mehmeti← A. Matusiwa

41'

B. Johnson↳ D. Furlong

45'

K. McAteer↳ G. Hirst

46'

T. Iwata← Paik Seung-Ho

56'

E. Laird← J. Panzo

56'

I. Osman← D. Gray

75'

J. Philogene← J. Clarke

75'

C. Akpom← G. Hirst

75'

J. Taylor← M. Nunez

76'

Jack Taylor

81'

M. Ducksch← J. Stansfield

81'

P. Roberts← C. Vicente

86'

C. Kipre← K. McAteer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBirmingham

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots9

1.89Expected Goals (xG)0.46

6Corners4

11Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots9

5On Target4

4Off Target1

2Blocked4

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

401Total Passes331

288Accurate Passes217

72%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.75Goals Prevented-0.75

Discipline

11Fouls19

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1