Ipswich 3–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Birmingham

O. Hutchinson 90+2'

J. Sarmiento 81'

C. Chaplin 31'

J. James 45+1'

2/24/2024

Championship · Round 34Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ipswich58%

×Draw25%

Birmingham17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.73

Ipswich

1.59

Birmingham

0.73

Ipswich creates 118% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

0.71

0.76

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ipswich

1.92

Birmingham

0.71

allows per match

Ipswich

0.76

Birmingham

1.27

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Ipswich+0.08on par

Birmingham-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

83%

Ipswich or Birmingham

75%

Draw or Birmingham

42%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

31%

Birmingham wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

80%

Ipswich 2+ goals

47%

Ipswich 3+ goals

21%

Birmingham 1+ goals

52%

Birmingham 2+ goals

17%

Birmingham 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

77%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.76 · 28 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.27 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.92 + Birmingham defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Birmingham attack 0.71 + Ipswich defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ipswich scores more

58%

level

25%

Birmingham scores more

17%

Ipswich at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

A. Tuanzebe

Ipswich · D

8.3

Match Events

21'

O. Hutchinson← W. Burns

31'

C. Chaplin↳ Sam Morsy

43'

45+1'

50'

54'

62'

J. Sarmiento← N. Broadhead

63'

S. Dembélé← T. Roberts

63'

J. Bacuna← Paik Seung-Ho

64'

I. Šunjić← A. Dozzell

75'

Ivan Šunjić

81'

J. Sarmiento↳ A. Tuanzebe

85'

G. Gardner← C. Drameh

90'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

90'

L. Jutkiewicz← D. Sanderson

90+2'

O. Hutchinson↳ K. Moore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBirmingham

Overview

60%Possession40%

26Total Shots11

2.63Expected Goals (xG)0.51

7Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

26Total Shots11

9On Target4

7Off Target4

10Blocked3

18Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

475Total Passes309

381Accurate Passes224

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Birmingham

Ipswich beat Birmingham 3-1 in Championship on February 24, 2024.

Goals: C. Chaplin (31'), J. James (45+1'), J. Sarmiento (81'), O. Hutchinson (90+2').

Ipswich controlled possession (60%) and registered 26 shots to 11.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.

Ipswich vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Birmingham