Iporá 3–0 Dom Bosco: Result & Stats | Serie D

Iporá

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dom Bosco

5/13/2018

Serie D · Round 4Estádio Francisco José Ferreira (Iporá, Goiás)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Iporá69%

×Draw20%

Dom Bosco11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IporáExpected goals in this matchDom Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.65

Iporá

2.00

Dom Bosco

0.65

Iporá creates 208% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.33

0.97

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Iporá

1.67

Dom Bosco

0.33

allows per match

Iporá

0.97

Dom Bosco

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iporá+0.00on par

Dom Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iporá ↓

Dom Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Iporá or draw

89%

Iporá or Dom Bosco

80%

Draw or Dom Bosco

31%

Winning margin

Iporá wins by 2+

43%

Dom Bosco wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Iporá 1+ goals

86%

Iporá 2+ goals

59%

Iporá 3+ goals

32%

Dom Bosco 1+ goals

48%

Dom Bosco 2+ goals

14%

Dom Bosco 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Iporá (draw refunded)

86%

Dom Bosco (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iporá at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Dom Bosco away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iporá attack 1.67 + Dom Bosco defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dom Bosco attack 0.33 + Iporá defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Iporá scores more

69%

level

20%

Dom Bosco scores more

11%

Iporá at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Iporá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff