Dom Bosco 0–1 Iporá: Result & Stats | Serie D

Dom Bosco

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Iporá

5/6/2018

Serie D · Round 3Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dom Bosco31%

×Draw33%

Iporá36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dom BoscoExpected goals in this matchIporá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

0.95

Dom Bosco

0.86

Iporá

0.95

Iporá creates 10% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 31 away

0.33

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dom Bosco

0.33

Iporá

0.90

allows per match

Dom Bosco

1.00

Iporá

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dom Bosco+0.00on par

Iporá+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dom Bosco ↓

Iporá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Dom Bosco or draw

64%

Dom Bosco or Iporá

67%

Draw or Iporá

69%

Winning margin

Dom Bosco wins by 2+

11%

Iporá wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dom Bosco 1+ goals

58%

Dom Bosco 2+ goals

21%

Dom Bosco 3+ goals

6%

Iporá 1+ goals

61%

Iporá 2+ goals

25%

Iporá 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dom Bosco (draw refunded)

46%

Iporá (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dom Bosco at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Iporá away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dom Bosco attack 0.33 + Iporá defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.86

Iporá attack 0.90 + Dom Bosco defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Dom Bosco scores more

31%

level

33%

Iporá scores more

36%

Iporá at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Iporá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff