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Ipatinga vs Pouso Alegre — Mineiro - 1 2020

Ipatinga
Ipatinga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pouso Alegre
Pouso Alegre
2/26/2023Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio João Lamego Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ipatinga46%
×Draw25%
Pouso Alegre29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga
1.55
Pouso Alegre
1.18

Ipatinga creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ipatinga
1.33
Pouso Alegre
0.80

allows per match

Ipatinga
1.56
Pouso Alegre
1.77

finishing

Ipatinga+0.00on par
Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga ↓

Pouso Alegre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ipatinga or draw
71%
Ipatinga or Pouso Alegre
75%
Draw or Pouso Alegre
54%

Winning margin

Ipatinga wins by 2+
23%
Pouso Alegre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ipatinga 1+ goals
79%
Ipatinga 2+ goals
46%
Ipatinga 3+ goals
20%
Pouso Alegre 1+ goals
69%
Pouso Alegre 2+ goals
33%
Pouso Alegre 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga (draw refunded)
61%
Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Pouso Alegre away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga attack 1.33 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Pouso Alegre attack 0.80 + Ipatinga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ipatinga scores more
46%
level
25%
Pouso Alegre scores more
29%

Ipatinga at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ipatinga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Ipatinga 1–1 Pouso Alegre

Ipatinga and Pouso Alegre drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 1 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio João Lamego Neto in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais.