Ipatinga 2–1 Pouso Alegre: Result & Stats

Ipatinga

FT

2 – 1

Pouso Alegre

11/18/2020

Mineiro - 2 · Quadrangular - 4Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ipatinga31%

×Draw28%

Pouso Alegre40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpatingaExpected goals in this matchPouso Alegre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.23

Ipatinga

1.04

Pouso Alegre

1.23

Pouso Alegre creates 18% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

1.22

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ipatinga

1.07

Pouso Alegre

1.22

allows per match

Ipatinga

1.25

Pouso Alegre

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipatinga+0.00on par

Pouso Alegre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga ↓

Pouso Alegre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ipatinga or draw

60%

Ipatinga or Pouso Alegre

72%

Draw or Pouso Alegre

69%

Winning margin

Ipatinga wins by 2+

12%

Pouso Alegre wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ipatinga 1+ goals

65%

Ipatinga 2+ goals

28%

Ipatinga 3+ goals

9%

Pouso Alegre 1+ goals

71%

Pouso Alegre 2+ goals

35%

Pouso Alegre 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga (draw refunded)

43%

Pouso Alegre (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

Pouso Alegre away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga attack 1.07 + Pouso Alegre defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Pouso Alegre attack 1.22 + Ipatinga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ipatinga scores more

31%

level

28%

Pouso Alegre scores more

40%

Pouso Alegre at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pouso Alegre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff