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Inverness CT vs Hibernian — FA Cup 2019

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hibernian
Hibernian
2/10/2024FA CupFA Cup · 5th RoundTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Inverness CT34%
×Draw25%
Hibernian41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.34
Hibernian
1.50

Hibernian creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
1.75
Hibernian
1.86

allows per match

Inverness CT
1.13
Hibernian
0.93

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
59%
Inverness CT or Hibernian
75%
Draw or Hibernian
66%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
15%
Hibernian wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
74%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
39%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
15%
Hibernian 1+ goals
78%
Hibernian 2+ goals
44%
Hibernian 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
45%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.75 + Hibernian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hibernian attack 1.86 + Inverness CT defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inverness CT scores more
34%
level
25%
Hibernian scores more
41%

Hibernian at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Inverness CT 1–3 Hibernian

Hibernian beat Inverness CT 3-1 in FA Cup on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.