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Hibernian vs Inverness CT — FA Cup 2019

Hibernian
Hibernianadvanced
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
2/28/2020FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finalsEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hibernian42%
×Draw21%
Inverness CT37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian
2.10
Inverness CT
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hibernian
2.40
Inverness CT
2.10

allows per match

Hibernian
1.80
Inverness CT
1.80

finishing

Hibernian+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw
63%
Hibernian or Inverness CT
79%
Draw or Inverness CT
58%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+
24%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals
88%
Hibernian 2+ goals
62%
Hibernian 3+ goals
35%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
86%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
58%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)
54%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 2.40 + Inverness CT defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.10

Inverness CT attack 2.10 + Hibernian defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hibernian scores more
42%
level
21%
Inverness CT scores more
37%

Hibernian at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Hibernian 5–2 Inverness CT

Hibernian beat Inverness CT 5-2 in FA Cup on February 28, 2020.

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.