Inverness CT 0–0 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arbroath

C. Gilmour 120+8' (pen)

R. Savage 120+6' (pen)

B. McKay 120+2' (pen)

L. Bisland 120+9' (pen)

J. Wilkie 120+7' (pen)

M. Stowe 120+5' (pen)

L. Callaghan 120+3' (pen)

I. Murray 120+1' (pen)

7/23/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Inverness CT60%

×Draw22%

Arbroath19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.00

Inverness CT

1.97

Arbroath

1.00

Inverness CT creates 97% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

2.25

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Inverness CT

2.25

Arbroath

1.25

allows per match

Inverness CT

0.75

Arbroath

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Arbroath →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

81%

Inverness CT or Arbroath

78%

Draw or Arbroath

40%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

36%

Arbroath wins by 2+

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

86%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

58%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

31%

Arbroath 1+ goals

63%

Arbroath 2+ goals

26%

Arbroath 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

76%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.25 + Arbroath defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.97

Arbroath attack 1.25 + Inverness CT defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Inverness CT scores more

60%

level

22%

Arbroath scores more

19%

Inverness CT at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

C. Gilmour← J. Walker

45+6'

M. Stowe← R. Dow

46'

B. Corner← A. Brooks

46'

L. Longstaff← C. MacKay

46'

B. McKay← S. Keogh

60'

G. Walker← T. OBrien

71'

C. Ferguson← R. Thompson

90+1'

Liam Callaghan

120+1'

I. MurrayPenalty

120+2'

B. McKayPenalty

120+3'

L. CallaghanPenalty

120+4'

L. LongstaffMissed penalty

120+5'

M. StowePenalty

120+6'

R. SavagePenalty

120+7'

J. WilkiePenalty

120+8'

C. GilmourPenalty

120+9'

L. BislandPenalty

Inverness4-4-2

Arbroath4-2-3-1

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Manager: D. Ferguson

42'▲C. Gilmour←▼J. Walker

46'▲B. Corner←▼A. Brooks

46'▲L. Longstaff←▼C. MacKay

46'▲B. McKay←▼S. Keogh

71'▲C. Ferguson←▼R. Thompson

Inverness CT substitutes

14Gilmour18Corner15Longstaff12McKay16Ferguson17Nixon13Rebilllas

Manager: J. McIntyre

45+6'▲M. Stowe←▼R. Dow

60'▲G. Walker←▼T. OBrien

Arbroath substitutes

14Stowe20Walker1Hemfrey