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Arbroath vs Inverness CT — League #183 2026

Arbroath
Arbroath
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
10/5/2024League #183League #183 · Round 9The Greenversity Stadium at Gayfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arbroath49%
×Draw30%
Inverness CT21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arbroath
1.21
Inverness CT
0.68

Arbroath creates 78% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Arbroath
1.63
Inverness CT
1.10

allows per match

Arbroath
0.25
Inverness CT
0.80

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw
79%
Arbroath or Inverness CT
70%
Draw or Inverness CT
51%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+
22%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals
70%
Arbroath 2+ goals
34%
Arbroath 3+ goals
12%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
49%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
15%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)
70%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 1.63 + Inverness CT defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Inverness CT attack 1.10 + Arbroath defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arbroath scores more
49%
level
30%
Inverness CT scores more
21%

Arbroath at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Arbroath 1–0 Inverness CT

Arbroath beat Inverness CT 1-0 in League #183 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at The Greenversity Stadium at Gayfield in Arbroath.