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Inverness CT vs Annan Athletic — League #183 2026

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
3/15/2025League #183League #183 · Round 29Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inverness CT62%
×Draw25%
Annan Athletic14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.60
Annan Athletic
0.60

Inverness CT creates 167% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
1.80
Annan Athletic
0.60

allows per match

Inverness CT
0.60
Annan Athletic
1.40

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Annan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
86%
Inverness CT or Annan Athletic
75%
Draw or Annan Athletic
38%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
34%
Annan Athletic wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
80%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
47%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
22%
Annan Athletic 1+ goals
45%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
12%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
82%
Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.80 + Annan Athletic defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Annan Athletic attack 0.60 + Inverness CT defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Inverness CT scores more
62%
level
25%
Annan Athletic scores more
14%

Inverness CT at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Inverness CT 0–1 Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic beat Inverness CT 1-0 in League #183 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.