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Annan Athletic vs Inverness CT — League #183 2026

Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
8/10/2024League #183League #183 · Round 2Galabank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Annan Athletic28%
×Draw25%
Inverness CT46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annan Athletic
1.15
Inverness CT
1.55

Inverness CT creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Annan Athletic
1.50
Inverness CT
1.10

allows per match

Annan Athletic
2.00
Inverness CT
0.80

finishing

Annan Athletic+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annan Athletic ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Annan Athletic or draw
54%
Annan Athletic or Inverness CT
75%
Draw or Inverness CT
72%

Winning margin

Annan Athletic wins by 2+
11%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Annan Athletic 1+ goals
68%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
32%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
11%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
79%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
46%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
38%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annan Athletic at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annan Athletic attack 1.50 + Inverness CT defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Inverness CT attack 1.10 + Annan Athletic defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Annan Athletic scores more
28%
level
25%
Inverness CT scores more
46%

Inverness CT at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annan Athletic vs Inverness CT

Annan Athletic beat Inverness CT 1-0 in League #183 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Galabank in Annan.