Interporto 2–3 Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Interporto

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ferroviario

5/6/2018

Serie D · Round 3Estádio General Sampaio (Porto Nacional, Tocantins)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Interporto27%

×Draw29%

Ferroviario44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterportoExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.27

Interporto

0.93

Ferroviario

1.27

Ferroviario creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 34 away

0.69

creates per match

1.09

1.46

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Interporto

0.69

Ferroviario

1.09

allows per match

Interporto

1.46

Ferroviario

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Interporto+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interporto ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Interporto or draw

56%

Interporto or Ferroviario

71%

Draw or Ferroviario

73%

Winning margin

Interporto wins by 2+

9%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Interporto 1+ goals

61%

Interporto 2+ goals

24%

Interporto 3+ goals

7%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

72%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

36%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Interporto (draw refunded)

38%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interporto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interporto attack 0.69 + Ferroviario defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Ferroviario attack 1.09 + Interporto defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Interporto scores more

27%

level

29%

Ferroviario scores more

44%

Ferroviario at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff