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Ferroviario vs Interporto — Serie D 2018

Ferroviario
Ferroviario
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Interporto
Interporto
5/12/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas (Fortaleza, Ceará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ferroviario87%
×Draw10%
Interporto3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviario
2.91
Interporto
0.40

Ferroviario creates 628% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ferroviario
1.97
Interporto
0.23

allows per match

Ferroviario
0.57
Interporto
3.85

finishing

Ferroviario+0.00on par
Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario ↓

Interporto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ferroviario or draw
97%
Ferroviario or Interporto
90%
Draw or Interporto
13%

Winning margin

Ferroviario wins by 2+
69%
Interporto wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Ferroviario 1+ goals
94%
Ferroviario 2+ goals
78%
Ferroviario 3+ goals
54%
Interporto 1+ goals
33%
Interporto 2+ goals
6%
Interporto 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario (draw refunded)
97%
Interporto (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario attack 1.97 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.91

Interporto attack 0.23 + Ferroviario defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Ferroviario scores more
87%
level
10%
Interporto scores more
3%

Ferroviario at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Ferroviario 1–1 Interporto

Ferroviario and Interporto drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas (Fortaleza, Ceará).