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Interporto vs CEOV Operário — Serie D 2018

Interporto
Interporto
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
CEOV Operário
CEOV Operário
6/7/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio General Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Interporto33%
×Draw29%
CEOV Operário38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interporto
1.04
CEOV Operário
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Interporto
0.69
CEOV Operário
0.79

allows per match

Interporto
1.46
CEOV Operário
1.39

finishing

Interporto+0.00on par
CEOV Operário+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interporto ↓

CEOV Operário →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Interporto or draw
62%
Interporto or CEOV Operário
71%
Draw or CEOV Operário
67%

Winning margin

Interporto wins by 2+
13%
CEOV Operário wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Interporto 1+ goals
65%
Interporto 2+ goals
28%
Interporto 3+ goals
9%
CEOV Operário 1+ goals
68%
CEOV Operário 2+ goals
31%
CEOV Operário 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Interporto (draw refunded)
47%
CEOV Operário (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interporto at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

CEOV Operário away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interporto attack 0.69 + CEOV Operário defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.04

CEOV Operário attack 0.79 + Interporto defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Interporto scores more
33%
level
29%
CEOV Operário scores more
38%

CEOV Operário at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CEOV Operário will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Interporto vs CEOV Operário

CEOV Operário beat Interporto 2-0 in Serie D on June 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio General Sampaio in Porto Nacional, Tocantins.